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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Week 11 Betting Preview

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles (+9) are heading southwest to face the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This late afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 4:25 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.

Philadelphia Eagles                  +8            +320       ov 54½
New Orleans Saints                  -8             -400       un 54½
Odds Provided by BetDSI.eu

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

In this Sunday NFC game, New Orleans is labeled as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 9 points. If they want to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to put down $400 in order to win $100 back on the Saints (-400). The Eagles are getting +300 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points. Some good in-game betting opportunities should present themselves during this matchup.

Sharp bettors have been hammering the Saints. The line opened at -8 and the game’s total has yet to change after it was set initially at 54.5.

The less-than-stellar Eagles are 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and are down 5.7 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5. The surprising Saints are up 3.8 units this season. The team is 7-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4.

The Eagles have gone 4-5 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Saints are 8-1 SU.

The Eagles are trying to get back on track after a 27-20 loss to Dallas last weekTheir defense allowed the Cowboys to eat up the clock by running for 171 yards on 28 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Ezekiel Elliott was unmatched for the Cowboys in that one with 151 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts, along with 36 yards and a score on six catches. On the offensive side of the ball, Carson Wentz completed 32 passes on 44 attempts for 360 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Josh Adams (47 yards on seven rush attempts) led the running attack in the loss while Zach Ertz (14 receptions, 145 yards, two TDs) and Nelson Agholor (five catches, 83 yards) handled the receiving duties.

New Orleans just picked up a 51-14 win over Cincinnati a week ago. The Saints defense allowed the Bengals to rush for 110 yards on 16 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Joe Mixon had a productive outing in the loss, recording 61 rushing yards on 11 attempts for Cincinnati. For New Orleans, Drew Brees completed 22-of-25 passes for 265 yards and three touchdowns. Mark Ingram (104 yards on 13 rush attempts) and Alvin Kamara (56 yards on 12 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Michael Thomas (eight receptions, 70 yards, two TDs) and Kamara (four catches, 46 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Philadelphia’s run the ball on 38.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has a rush percentage of 47.2 percent. The Eagles have produced 103 rush yards per game and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Saints are logging 127 rush yards per game and have 17 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers are any indication, then the Saints ought to be the more disruptive team in the trenches, since their offensive line has yielded only nine sacks while their D-line has logged 21 sacks. The Eagles offensive line has given up 28 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss just 26 times.

The Eagles offense has tallied 290 yards/game through the air overall and has 16 passing scores so far. The Saints have recorded 295 pass yards per contest and have 21 total pass TDs.

Philadelphia appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents rush for an average of 93 yards and throw for 285 yards per game. The New Orleans defense has allowed 311.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 80.1 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.42 to opposing QBs, while the Saints have given up an 8.21 ANY/A.

Offensively, Wentz is up to 1,862 passing yards this season, and has connected on 71 percent of his 239 attempts with 12 scores through the air and only two interceptions. Wentz’s got a 7.29 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.78 over the last two outings.

Expect Wentz to attack all areas of the New Orleans secondary. Zach Ertz (147 receiving yards and four touchdowns), Nelson Agholor (406 yards, one TD) and Jordan Matthews (147 yards, one TD) have all been heavily involved recently.

In the host locker room, Drew Brees has completed 210-of-268 passes for 2,255 yards, 17 TDs and one INT. Brees’ ANY/A stands at 8.95 for the year and 12.31 over his last two games.

We’re looking for Saints to control the clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. In addition to Michael Thomas (739 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Alvin Kamara (464 rush yards, nine rush TDs, 439 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Mark Ingram (252 rush yards, two rush TDs, 117 receiving yards, one TD) have been significant focal points in the New Orleans offense.

RELATED: Week 11 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions 

Free NFL Pick: Eagles vs. Saints

SU Winner – Saints, ATS Winner – Eagles, O/U – Over

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Notes

Betting Trends

The Philadelphia defense has 26 sacks on the year while New Orleans has 21.

The New Orleans offense has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while Philadelphia has let nine get away.

The Eagles offense has recorded five pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Saints have put up four such plays.

The Philadelphia defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Orleans has given up nine such plays.

Both defenses have produced four rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Philadelphia offense has recorded 25 running plays of 10+ yards while New Orleans has accounted for 24 such plays.

The Eagles defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Saints have given up four such runs.

Philadelphia has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.6 over its last two.

New Orleans has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.8 over its last two.

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Written by GMS Previews

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