The Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. FOX Sports South will televise the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:35 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Philadelphia (+125) is entering this game as the underdog to Atlanta (-135) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at 8.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. You can also bet on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -170 for the Phillies +1.5 runs and +150 for the Braves -1.5.
The Phillies are 78-74 SU and are 70-81 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.9 units for moneyline bettors and 20.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 85-68 SU and 77-74 ATS. They’ve gained 17.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 0.8 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
Braves games have had an over/under record of 73-72-6 in 2018. Philadelphia has been a decent under bet with a total record of 68-77-6.
Nick Pivetta is getting the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Pivetta (7-13, 4.67 ERA) has recorded 181 punchouts in 154.1 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with 18 strikeouts and a 3.43 ERA against Atlanta this year (four starts).
The Braves will send righty Julio Teheran (9-8, 3.97 ERA) to the mound. Teheran has 152 strikeouts and 79 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.19. Teheran is 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.01 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.08 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.98, along with a K-per-9 of 9.12.
The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.318/.397 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is hitting .254/.358/.360 with 13 home runs, 54 RBIs, 87 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Herrera (.256/.313/.427) is up to 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 64 runs scored.
For the home team, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.57, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.6. The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 67 games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.14 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.91.
The Atlanta hitters have produced 4.8 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .253/.351/.416 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.
First baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis have led the way for the Braves’ batters this year. Freeman is slashing .311/.390/.509 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 94 runs scored, and Markakis has put up a line of .304/.370/.453 with 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 77 runs.
The Phillies have lost 4.7 units and are 53-61 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 60 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 20.1 units and are 59-48 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in just two of Atlanta’s last seven games.
Atlanta has posted 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.0 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit seven over their last 10.
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