The Philadelphia Phillies will face their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The matchup will begin at 4:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox SportsNet Florida to catch the action.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas has listed Philadelphia (-170) as the favorite over Miami (+160). The total sits at 8 runs and bettors can take the over for even money (+100) or the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at Phillies -1.5 runs (-120) and Marlins +1.5 runs (+100).
The Phillies have gone 53-40 SU this year and are 41-51 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 12.8 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 18.1 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 39-57 SU and 51-44 ATS. They’ve gained 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 2.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 49-44-2 thus far in 2018. Philadelphia has been a decent under bet with a total record of 39-48-5.
Aaron Nola will get the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Nola (12-2, 2.27 ERA) has recorded 126 strikeouts in 122 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.
The Marlins are sending Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.24 ERA) to the mound. Richards has 53 strikeouts and 29 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.61. Richards is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.99 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.01, along with a WHIP of 1.20.
Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.322/.393 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).
Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Herrera is slashing .276/.328/.462 with 16 home runs, 52 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Hernandez (.270/.378/.378) is up to eight homers, 28 RBIs, 63 runs and 14 stolen bases.
For the home team, Miami’s pitchers have given up 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 4.68 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 30 games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.28.
Miami’s offense is putting up 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .302/.389/.390 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ offense has been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .293/.340/.412 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 57 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .285/.361/.417 with seven homers, 46 RBIs and 52 runs.
The Marlins have gained 2.7 units and are 34-35 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 36 of those games, compared to 31 that’ve gone under.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Philadelphia has tallied 10 extra-base hits over its last five games. Miami has nine XBH over its last five.
The Phillies have won four of their last five games SU.
Philadelphia has posted 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 10 over their last 10.
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