Robert Gsellman (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the New York Mets (66-63) meet Vince Velasquez (8-6, 4.31 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (59-70) in the last of a three-game division series at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 12-1, and New York leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 28 and will air on CSPh and SNY.
In his most recent outing, Gsellman pitched 3.2 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out two and walking three in a 7-4 victory over the Cardinals. Yoenis Cespedes (.295, 55 Rs, 26 HRs, 67 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. The Phillies were unsuccessful against the Cardinals 9-0 the last time Velasquez pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out seven and walking two. Odubel Herrera (.283, 67 Rs, 13 HRs, 42 RBIs, 19 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
New York is a -133 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Mets are 47-38 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,191. They have SU record of 6-4 and are unbeaten as the favorite (3-0) over their last 10 games. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Mets has gone great. Over that span, New York is averaging 5.8 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.9. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, the New York pitching staff and defense has been very good, only giving up 3.9 runs per game. The Mets don’t give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the NL with only 2.6 walks allowed per game.
Switching gears, the Phillies come into this game with a win percentage of .423 when playing as the underdog (41-56) and an overall money line of +575. Against teams in their division, they are 22-26 SU and 13-18 as the underdog. Within their division, Philadelphia’s offense has been struggling. Philadelphia has averaged 3.1 runs per game, compared to 3.8 for the duration of the season. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 6.8 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.8.
The Mets have gotten the best of the Phillies in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-4. This game will feature Velasquez (RHP) on the mound against the Mets, who have a 48-45 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Gsellman. They sport a 45-54 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
The Mets won their last game by an 11-run margin. In games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more, the Phillies are 0-5. The Mets are 4-0 in blowouts this season.
The Mets are coming into this matchup after a high-scoring game where they scored a whopping 12 runs. The Phillies have a 0-4 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
It looks like the Mets have a slight leg up on the Phillies, as the Mets have won their last three games while the Phillies have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Mets are 45-11. The Phillies have a 39-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, New York ranks 28th with 508 runs and Philadelphia is 29th with 484.
Ranking 29th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 326 this season. New York ranks in the top half with 393.
The Mets are 57-34 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 50-38 when they hit at least one homer.
