The Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Southeast will be airing the matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Odds
Oddsmakers are listing Atlanta (-110) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+100). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -210 for taking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +175 for the Braves -1.5.
The Phillies have gone 10-6 SU this year and are 5-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 2.2 units for moneyline bettors over the early portions of the year, despite having lost 6.8 units ATS. The Braves, on the other hand, are 9-7 SU and 11-4 ATS. The team’s gained 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS.
Braves games have an over/under record of 5-7-3 so far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 7-7-1.
Vince Velasquez is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 17 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are turning to righty Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 3.31 ERA), who has 12 strikeouts and six walks as well as a WHIP of 1.29. McCarthy is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.83 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.24, along with a WHIP of 1.19.
Phillies hitters have slashed .228/.330/.384 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led Philadelphia’s offense. Hoskins is slashing .327/.485/.592 with 16 hits, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Hernandez (.291/.443/.436) has produced 16 hits, two homers, five RBIs and 13 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have yielded 3.9 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 3.13, a WHIP of 1.41 and a K/9 of 9.4. In 11 games against NL East opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.18 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.11.
The Atlanta offense is putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .266/.358/.404 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies have led the Braves’ batters so far. Freeman is slashing .286/.467/.500 with 16 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, and Albies has put up a line of .310/.338/.662 with five homers, 11 RBIs and 16 runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman performed well against righties at home in 2017, slashing .362/.475/.638 over 160 such plate appearances.
The Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 2-9 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 5.7 units and are 10-3 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in four of those games, compared to six that went under the total.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in only one of Atlanta’s last seven games.
The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games SU.
Philadelphia has recorded 24.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.2 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit nine over their last 10.
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