Jake Arrieta (18-6, 2.03 ERA) starts for the Chicago Cubs (80-58) as they square off against Adam Morgan (5-5, 4.42 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (54-86) in the first of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 10 and can be seen on CSCh and CSPh.
Morgan pitched 6.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering six runs, striking out six and walking two in a 7-5 defeat to the Red Sox. Arrieta went 8.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and striking out seven in a 2-0 win over the Diamondbacks in his last outing. Anthony Rizzo (.285, 81 Rs, 29 HRs, 88 RBIs, 15 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Chicago is favored (-290) over Philadelphia and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs. The Phillies have recorded an overall money line of -857 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 48-77. Philadelphia has recorded a disappointing 2-6 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Phillies are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 381.
As for their opponent, Chicago is coming in with an overall money line of +1,061 and an impressive record of 58-33 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average four runs per game on the road, which is third in the NL. The Cubs capitalize on their at-bats at a high percentage, leading the league with a .243 team batting average. Chicago is excellent at drawing walks with 3.5 per game, ranking second in the NL. Chicago’s pitching staff is one of the top in the NL, with a 3.56 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cubs are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.20 for the season. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.4 strikeouts per road game.
The Phillies have the edge in the season series, 3-0. The Phillies have a 41-66 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Arrieta takes the mound. Morgan (LHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 16-13 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – ChC, O/U – Over
Notes
Philadelphia has won 40% (27-40) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 59% (32-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Chicago batters brought in a solid 11 hits last game. Philadelphia has a record of 9-44 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 32-15. The Cubs have a 52-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 27th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 537 this season. Chicago ranks 16th with 584 runs.
Ranking 28th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 324 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at second with 476.
The Phillies are 36-40 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cubs are 56-25 when they hit at least one homer.
