The Philadelphia Phillies will head south to Marlins Park to square off against their divisional rival Miami Marlins. The matchup will get underway at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox SportsNet Florida to catch the action.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Philadelphia (-140) is favored over Miami (+130) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Runline odds stand at +105 for picking the Phillies -1.5 runs and -125 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.
The Marlins are 71-65 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 54-83 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 2.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.1 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Phillies have gone 72-64 SU this year and are 66-69 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 6.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, but have lost 12.1 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Miami games have an over/under record of 69-63-4 in 2018. Philadelphia has been a good under bet with a total record of 59-71-5.
The right-handed Vince Velasquez is projected to start for the visiting Phillies. Velasquez (9-9, 4.05 ERA) has racked up 142 punchouts in 129 innings so far. He’s 2-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 0.73 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins will turn to righty Jose Urena (4-12, 4.56 ERA), who has 110 strikeouts and 42 walks to his credit as well as a 1.24 WHIP. Urena is 0-2 with 13 strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.88 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.03, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.317/.396 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Philadelphia’s offense has been fueled by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who’ve collectively launched 32 home runs. Herrera is slashing .267/.321/.444 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs and 58 runs scored, while Hernandez has a .253 average with 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 steals.
For the home team, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 58 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.24.
Miami’s offense is putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .285/.363/.448 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .289/.341/.412 with 11 home runs, 50 RBIs and 72 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .275/.359/.402 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 5.8 units and are 51-52 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.9 units and are 51-51 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 48 that’ve cashed the under.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven contests.
Philadelphia has posted 20.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 18.0 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
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