The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising the matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Philadelphia (-150) is favored against Miami (+140) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 7.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at -105 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and -115 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Marlins are 72-66 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 55-84 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.1 units (ATS). On the other hand, the Phillies have gone 73-65 SU this year and are 66-71 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 4.2 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 14.1 units ATS.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 69-65-4 in 2018. The Phillies have been a good under bet with a total record of 60-72-5.
The right-handed Nick Pivetta is the projected starter for Philadelphia. Pivetta is 7-10 with a 4.66 ERA and 168 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.54 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins will put the ball in the right hand of Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP), who has two punchouts and five walks this season. Alcantara has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.
Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 60 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.08.
The Miami hitters have produced 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .267/.328/.388 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ hitters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .288/.340/.412 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .271/.354/.396 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.99, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.317/.396 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and outfielder Odubel Herrera continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is slashing .254/.361/.359 with 11 home runs, 45 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 steals, while Herrera (.263/.316/.437) has produced 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 59 runs scored.
The Phillies have gained 4.4 units and are 51-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 44 of those games, as opposed to 56 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 1.1 units and are 52-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 50 of those games, compared to 50 that went under.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has cashed in three of Philadelphia’s last seven contests.
Philadelphia has posted 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 16.4 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
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