The Philadelphia Phillies will play their NL East nemesis Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will showcase the matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas is listing Miami (+130) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-140). The total sits at 7.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for an even +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Phillies -1.5 runs (+105) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-125).
The Marlins are 72-66 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 55-83 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 2.1 units for moneyline bettors and 8.1 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Phillies are 72-65 SU and have gone 66-71 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 4.2 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 14.1 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Miami games have a 69-65-4 over/under record in 2018. Philadelphia has been a decent under bet with a total record of 60-72-5.
Jake Arrieta is getting the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Arrieta is 9-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 109 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 4.91 ERA against Miami this year (three starts).
The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of Trevor Richards (3-7, 4.26 ERA), who has 103 strikeouts and 45 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.39. Richards is 1-1 with 13 strikeouts and a 2.40 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.
Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.89 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.01, along with a K-per-9 of 9.34.
The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.316/.395 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Philadelphia’s offense has been sparked by outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who collectively have swatted 32 home runs. Herrera is slashing .264/.318/.441 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs and 58 runs scored, while Hernandez is hitting .251 with 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 stolen bases.
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.40, a WHIP of 1.30 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.6. The bullpen has a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 59 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.18.
Miami’s offense has produced 3.7 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .259/.330/.377 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins’ hitters this year. Castro is slashing .287/.339/.410 with 11 home runs, 50 RBIs and 72 runs scored, while Anderson’s line is .273/.356/.399 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs.
The Marlins have gained 1.1 units and are 52-52 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 50 of those games, as opposed to 50 that’ve hit the under against righties.
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has cashed in three of Philadelphia’s last seven contests.
Philadelphia has posted 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.2 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit seven over their last 10.
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