The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the New York Mets at Citi Field in the 1 game of a NL East doubleheader. The opening pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will be televising the action.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds
Vegas has listed Philadelphia (-125) as the favorite over New York (+115). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -120 for over eight runs and +100 for under eight. The game’s current runline odds sit at +120 for taking the Phillies -1.5 runs and -140 for the Mets +1.5.
The Mets are only 35-51 straight up (SU) and 35-49 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 17.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 20.6 units (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven. The Phillies are 49-38 SU and have gone 39-47 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 12.8 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 15.3 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.
New York games have an over/under record of 35-45-4 so far in 2018. Philadelphia has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 38-44-4.
Zach Eflin will get the nod for Philadelphia. The right-handed Eflin is 7-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 63 strikeouts. He has yet to face New York this year, but he did make two starts against the Mets in 2017, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 4.35 ERA and nine strikeouts.
The Mets are putting the ball in the right hand of Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), who’s got 91 strikeouts and 35 walks. Wheeler made three starts against the Phillies in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record with a 2.51 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have a 4.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.87 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 31 games against divisional foes, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.49 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.72.
New York’s offense is putting up 3.9 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .210/.303/.369 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Mets’ hitters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Brandon Nimmo. Cabrera is hitting .280/.328/.479 with 15 home runs, 49 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Nimmo’s line is .262/.386/.515 with 12 homers, 26 RBIs and 44 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.09 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.05, along with a K/9 of 9.57.
The Phillies offense has slashed .235/.322/.396 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Philadelphia’s offensive production has been powered by outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is slashing .281/.335/.469 with 15 home runs, 51 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Hernandez (.266/.377/.382) has produced eight homers, 28 RBIs, 61 runs and 13 steals.
The Phillies have gained 11.8 units and are 30-35 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 28 of those games, compared to 34 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 10.9 units and are 24-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 25 of those games, compared to 31 that’ve gone under.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – UNDER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The over has cashed in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven outings.
New York has posted 16.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.6 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 10 over their last 10.
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