The Philadelphia Phillies are paying a visit to Flushing to play their divisional rival Mets at Citi Field. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will broadcast the action.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds
Vegas is listing New York (+145) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-155). The total stands at 7.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -120 and the under for +100. Runline odds sit at -110 for betting the Phillies -1.5 runs and -110 for the Mets +1.5.
The Phillies are 73-66 SU and are 67-72 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 3.5 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 14.1 units ATS. The Mets, on the other hand, are 63-76 SU and 67-71 ATS. The team has lost 12.7 units for moneyline bettors and 11.1 units ATS.
Mets games have an over/under record of 61-70-7 in 2018. The Phillies have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 61-73-5.
The right-handed Aaron Nola is the probable starter for the visiting Phillies. Nola is 15-4 with a 2.23 ERA and 188 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 with 29 strikeouts and a 1.44 ERA against New York this year (four starts).
The Mets are putting the ball in the left hand of Steven Matz (5-11, 4.20 ERA), who’s got 124 punchouts and 45 walks this season as well as a 1.27 WHIP. Matz is 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 6.43 ERA over two starts against Philadelphia this year.
New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.77, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 5.01 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 56 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.64 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.05.
The New York hitters are putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .274/.319/.413 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
Shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto have led the Mets’ hitters this year. Rosario is hitting .257/.297/.382 with seven home runs, 43 RBIs, 63 runs and 18 stolen bases, while Conforto’s line is .232/.341/.408 with 21 homers, 58 RBIs and 63 runs.
For the visiting squad, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.96, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.317/.395 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera, who have combined to drive in 110 runs. Hernandez is hitting .252/.360/.356 with 11 home runs, 45 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 stolen bases. Herrera is hitting .263/.316/.436 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 59 runs scored.
The Phillies have lost 0.3 units and are 15-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 6.6 units and are 48-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 45 of those games, as opposed to 48 that’ve gone under.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in three of New York’s last seven games.
The Mets have won four of their last five games SU.
Philadelphia fielders have committed two errors over their last five games, compared to five errors for New York over its last five.
The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit seven over their last 10.
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