Adam Morgan (4-4, 4.43 ERA) and Colin Rea (2-1, 5.52 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies (51-78) and the San Diego Padres (62-66) at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won the last game 7-1 and Philadelphia leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 29 and can be seen on WCAU and FSSD.
Morgan pitched 3.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs and striking out three in a 16-7 defeat to the Mets. Jeff Francoeur (.277, 28 Rs, 12 HRs, 42 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run and one RBI. Rea went 4.0 innings, surrendering four runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking two in a 10-3 defeat to the Cardinals in his most recent start. Justin Upton (.256, 69 Rs, 23 HRs, 71 RBIs, 18 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
San Diego is a slim -110 favorite over Philadelphia. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. The Phillies have recorded an overall money line of -713 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 45-71. The Phillies have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.3 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.8 runs per game. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.4 runs per game, well above its season average of 5.1.
In games where it is the favorite, San Diego has a 32-24 record and an overall money line of -474. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games playing as the favorite, and have a 6-4 SU record over the same span. The Padres have a dynamic offense, ranking fifth in the league with 342 extra base hits.
The Phillies have the edge in the season series, 4-0. The Phillies have a 38-61 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Rea takes the mound. Morgan (LHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 15-12 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SD, O/U – Over
Notes
The Phillies are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Padres have a 29-42 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Padres are 9-48. The Phillies have a 16-60 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 28th in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 101 this season. San Diego ranks 18th with 116 home runs.
Ranking 14th, San Diego is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.25 per game. Philadelphia ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.70.
Philadelphia and San Diego both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Philadelphia sits at 26th with an OPS of .691 and San Diego ranks 28th with an OPS of .682.
The Padres are 33-47 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Phillies are 24-57 when they allow at least one homer.
