Adam Morgan (3-4, 4.11 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (46-73) meet Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (66-54) in the second of a two-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. The Blue Jays won the last game 8-5 and Toronto leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 19 and will air on CSPh and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Morgan pitched 6.0 innings, giving up three runs and striking out one in a 3-1 loss to the Brewers. The Blue Jays were victorious the last time Buehrle pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out two and walking two in a 4-2 victory over the Athletics. Josh Donaldson (.296, 89 Rs, 33 HRs, 91 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Blue Jays, going 3 for 4 yesterday with three runs, two home runs, and four RBIs.
Philadelphia is a considerable +183 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Phillies perform poorly as an underdog with a 41-65 record and have an overall money line of -696. They have a 7-7 record when they were the underdog and 7-8 SU against the American League. Don’t expect the Philadelphia hitters to swing wildly. They average only 7.4 strikeouts per game. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 6.3 during that span, compared to its 5.0 season average.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Blue Jays come into this game with a solid win percentage of .644 when playing as the favorite (47-26) and an overall money line of +306. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 8-2 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 6-2 record. The Blue Jays are the number one overall scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.2 runs per game so far. Toronto is one of the top road hitting teams in the AL with an average of 8.6 hits per contest. The Blue Jays average 3.3 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Toronto pitchers. They’ve allowed 2.0 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 2.6 walks per game, good for second in the AL.
The Blue Jays are 2-1 against the Phillies this season. This game will feature Buehrle (LHP) on the mound against the Phillies, who have a 10-15 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the left-hander Morgan. They sport a 15-11 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Under
Notes
Philadelphia has won 40% (23-35) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 58% (31-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Phillies have a 23-46 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 11-43. The Phillies have a 16-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 28th in home runs, Philadelphia has hit 86 this season. Toronto ranks second with 161 home runs.
Ranking sixth, Toronto is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.75 per game. Philadelphia ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.64.
Toronto tops the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .773 this season. Philadelphia ranks near the bottom at 26th with an OPS of .683.
The Blue Jays are 37-39 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Phillies are 21-52 when they allow at least one homer.
