He was the story of the offseason, but since Opening Day, news about Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper has been hard to come by.
Harper hasn’t been awful, certainly; he hit two home runs Wednesday night against the Cubs to give him 24 for the season and his OPS is a solid .859. But for the 13-year, $325 million man, it has been something short of spectacular.
Perhaps the problems were the expectations were unrealistic. Perhaps Harper is just having a down year. Or perhaps the entire contract will end up being a bust.
It’s too early to say for sure. ESPN.com took an in-depth look at the issue, and its results are worth a read.
Bryce Harper is on pace for:
32.4 HR, a career-best 41 doubles, 111 walks, and a career-best 115 RBIs.
— BobCrossingBroad (@BWCrossingBroad) August 15, 2019
Comparing against career numbers
If Harper finishes off the year on his current pace, he’ll have 32 homers, 115 RBIs and an .859 OPS. That would be a career high in RBIs, but not particularly close in any other category.
However, it also wouldn’t be anywhere near Harper’s worst. His OPS+ of 119 — a useful stat because it takes ballpark factor into account — is the fourth-highest of eight years in his career. It’s well below his MVP season of 2015, but much better than the following year.
ESPN also makes a fine point that Harper has been better in the clutch this year. His Win Probability Added, which measures how much a player contributes, positively or negatively, to a team’s chances of winning each game, is fifth in baseball, behind only these guys: Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger and Freddie Freeman.
Ultimately, Harper is on pace for a similar year to his rookie season of 2012: Very good, but certainly not MVP worthy. However, as a 19-year-old rookie, that was a taste of what was to come. As a 28-year-old making $25 million, it’s disappointing.
Is Bryce a bust? Not if you take Harper’s word for it https://t.co/XMSOvwwljl
— sportsPond53 (@sportsPond53) August 15, 2019
Still time
Of course, the season isn’t over yet, and if Harper’s big night Wednesday (the ESPN article was published before the game) is any indication, he still has plenty of time to improve his numbers and the Phillies’ playoff positioning.
If Harper gets hot and Philadelphia, which has only 10.9 percent playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, makes a charge toward the wild card, the narrative will change on Harper’s season.
And beyond that, there are still 12 years to go in the deal, the first several still in Harper’s prime. Ultimately, four and a half months is a little early to make a genuine judgment on this deal.
Bryce Harper is on his most consistent power binge of the season
• 6 HR last 11 games
• 21 RBI last 25 games
• .400 OBP since June 30
• 33 HR, 113 RBI pace
• .378 w/ RISP
Still much work to do final 6 weeks but could end up having a pretty damn good offensive year
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) August 15, 2019
