The Denver Nuggets (23-22) challenge the Phoenix Suns (16-29) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 19, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points with Denver opening as a 9-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
The Suns are trying to rebound after their 118-111 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in their last outing. Portland’s 8.6 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Phoenix, who had a rate of 11.6. The Trail Blazers’ mark was better than their season average of 12.7. Devin Booker was the top scorer from either team with 43 points on 14-for-29 shooting.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Los Angeles Clippers, 109-104. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Los Angeles’ largest strengths. They made 31 trips to the line, while Denver went 18 times. With 16 points and 14 rebounds, Denver’s Mason Plumlee had a solid game.
Expect Denver to own the offensive glass in this matchup. The Nuggets currently rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.0 percent), while Phoenix ranks 25th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.2 percent).
Phoenix heads into the game with records of 16-29 straight up (SU) and 21-22-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Suns games, with 22 overs compared to 22 unders.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 23-22 SU and 20-23-2 ATS. Of the Nuggets’ 45 games, 27 have finished under the total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Gary Harris scored a game-high 36 points in the first game, in which the Nuggets beat the Suns 134-111, covering as 12.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 245 points, which was 26.5 points above the projected point total of 218.5 points. The Nuggets had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.695 vs. 0.495) and had a better free throw rate (0.244 vs. 0.217).
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 12-8-1 ATS on the road with 12 overs and 9 unders.
Denver is 12-9 ATS at home with 13 unders and 8 overs.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 5-2 and Denver is 12-2.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Nuggets are 18-13 and the Suns are 12-17.
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Phoenix ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
The Nuggets average 49.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Suns rank 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.6).
Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while Phoenix ranks 24th (45.2).
The Nuggets rank ninth in fast break points per game (13.5) while the Suns rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.0).
Denver ranks seventh in assists per game (23.4) while Phoenix ranks 25th (20.9).
The Nuggets rank 12th in steals per game (7.9) while the Suns rank 29th (6.6).
Denver ranks 12th in points off turnovers per game (17.4) while Phoenix ranks 26th (14.7).
The Nuggets average 4.6 blocks per game, which ranks 17th in the league. The Suns rank 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 1-4 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 7.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 94.6 points per game (11.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.2 points per game (3.4 below their season average).
