The Houston Rockets (34-13) square off with the Phoenix Suns (17-32) at Toyota Center. The game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 28, 2018, and will air on NBATV.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 227 points with Houston opening as a 14-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
The last time the Suns played, they were dismantled by the New York Knicks, 107-85. New York’s 0.188 free throw rate was their largest strength over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.085. The Knicks’ mark was above their season average of 0.186, while the Suns’ was below their season average of 0.222. Phoenix’s Josh Jackson put together a good outing, contributing 18 points and eight rebounds.
The Rockets lost a close one to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 115-113. New Orleans’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Houston. The Pelicans had a rate of 15.4 (below their season average of 20.1), while the Rockets posted a mark of 5.3 (below their season average of 22.5). With 38 points on 11-for-19 shooting, Chris Paul was the top scorer from either team.
Houston could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their high-octane offense squares off against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Rockets currently rank second in offensive efficiency, while Phoenix ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.
Phoenix holds records of 17-32 straight up (SU) and 23-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Suns’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 34-13 SU and 23-23-1 ATS. Much like Phoenix, games featuring the Rockets have gone under the total 51.1 percent of the time.
The Rockets have won both contests against the Suns this season, including a 17-point victory the last time these teams met. Houston covered as a 7.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 207 points, which was 25 points below the projected point total of 232 points. The Rockets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.2 vs. 9.3) and had a much better free throw rate (0.202 vs. 0.087). Paul was a standout player in the game, producing 25 points, eight rebounds and six assists.
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Rockets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 14-9-1 ATS on the road with 13 overs and 11 unders.
At home, Houston is 10-13-1 ATS with 14 overs and 10 unders.
Houston is 16-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Phoenix is 5-2.
When scoring over 100 points, the Suns are 13-19 and the Rockets are 33-10.
Houston ranks third in steals per game (9.0) while Phoenix ranks 29th (6.7).
The Rockets rank sixth in points off turnovers per game (18.2) while the Suns rank 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.1).
Houston ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while Phoenix ranks 24th (44.8).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (43.2) while the Suns rank 20th (27.6).
Phoenix ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.1) while Houston ranks 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (12.9).
The Suns average 45.1 points in the paint per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Rockets rank 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.6).
Houston ranks 17th in blocks allowed per game (5.0) while Phoenix ranks 26th (5.3).
The Rockets rank 18th in second chance points per game (11.7) while the Suns rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.0, up from 7.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 109.6 points per game (4.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.6 points per game (4.9 below their season average).
