The Miami Heat (33-30) take on the Phoenix Suns (19-46) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 5, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points with Miami opening as a 9.5-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Suns are trying to rebound after their 113-112 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in their last outing. Atlanta’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix. The Hawks had a rate of 20.0 (below their season average of 21.9), while the Suns posted a mark of 11.1 (below their season average of 23.4). With 11 points, 14 assists and 10 rebounds, Elfrid Payton led the way for Phoenix with his first triple-double this season.
In the Heat’s last game, they were victorious over the Detroit Pistons, 105-96. The Heat had a free throw rate of 0.232 (above their season average of 0.175), while the Pistons had a turnover percentage of 15.5 (above their season average of 12.0). Josh Richardson was Miami’s high scorer with 17 points on 7-for-13 shooting.
Miami should have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.508), while Phoenix is 30th in effective field goal percentage (0.495). It will also be a showdown of contrasting tempos as the fast-breaking Suns rank third in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Heat rank 28th.
Phoenix holds records of 19-46 straight up (SU) and 29-33-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Suns have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Miami is 33-30 SU and 32-29-2 ATS. Much like Phoenix, Heat games have gone under the total 54.0 percent of the time.
Devin Booker and Payton have played at a high level over the last five games for Phoenix. Booker has averaged 34.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Not to be outdone, Payton has put up 15.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.6 steals a game during that span.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Goran Dragic had 29 points and nine rebounds in the first matchup, in which the Heat defeated the Suns 126-115, covering as 6-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 241 points, which was 24.5 points above the projected point total of 216.5 points. The Heat had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.2 vs. 12.5) and had a better free throw rate (0.346 vs. 0.261).
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 17-13-1 ATS on the road with 16 unders and 15 overs.
At home, Miami is 10-18-2 ATS with 16 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
Phoenix is 6-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Miami is 20-6.
The Suns are 15-28 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 23-14.
Phoenix ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.5) while Miami ranks 28th (8.0).
The Heat average 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Suns rank 28th in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
Phoenix ranks seventh in second chance points per game (13.4) while Miami ranks 26th (10.7).
The Heat rank ninth in rebounds allowed per game (42.2) while the Suns rank 28th (45.6).
Miami ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while Phoenix ranks 27th (8.5).
The Heat rank 13th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.4) while the Suns rank 26th (47.4).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (25.8) while Phoenix ranks 12th (28.6).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.4) while the Suns rank 11th (22.7).
Miami ranks 21st in points off turnovers per game (15.6) while Phoenix ranks 25th (15.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 8.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (10.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (6.2 above their season average).
