The Milwaukee Bucks (23-22) take on the Phoenix Suns (17-29) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, January 22, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin.
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The Suns will be hoping for similar success after topping the Denver Nuggets in their last game, 108-100. Phoenix’s 10.9 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver, who had a rate of 15.5. The Suns’ mark was better than their season average of 13.4, while the Nuggets’ was above the 11.4 mark opponents have averaged against Phoenix this season. With 30 points on 11-for-23 shooting, Devin Booker led Phoenix in scoring.
The last time the Bucks played, they got blown out by the Philadelphia 76ers, 116-94. Philadelphia’s 28.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 19.0. The 76ers’ mark was above their season average of 25.5. Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton had a big game, collecting 23 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double this season.
The aggressive Milwaukee offense might be getting to the free throw line a lot in this matchup. The Bucks currently rank fifth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.224, while Phoenix ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.212). Conflicting tempos will be on display in this meeting. The up-and-down Suns rank fourth in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Bucks rank 26th.
Phoenix comes into the game with records of 17-29 straight up (SU) and 22-22-2 against the spread (ATS). It’s tough to find a trend for games featuring the Suns in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 23-22 SU and 19-21-5 ATS. Of the Bucks’ 45 games, 26 have finished over the projected point total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Middleton scored a game-high 40 points and the Bucks beat the Suns 113-107, covering as 1.5-point favorites. He also had nine rebounds. The game finished with a total of 220 points, which was just 1.5 points above the projected point total of 218.5 points. Milwaukee had a much better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 21.2). Phoenix, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (43.1 vs. 25.5).
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Phoenix is 13-8-1 ATS with 12 overs and 10 unders.
Milwaukee is 8-12-3 ATS at home with 13 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
Milwaukee is 9-3 when they allow under 100 points, while Phoenix is 5-2.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Bucks are 19-12 and the Suns are 13-17.
Milwaukee ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (8.0) while Phoenix ranks 29th (14.2).
The Bucks rank fourth in steals allowed per game (7.0) while the Suns rank 27th (8.7).
Milwaukee ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while Phoenix ranks 24th (5.3).
The Suns rank eighth in second chance points per game (13.4) while the Bucks rank 29th (9.8).
Phoenix ranks seventh in rebounds per game (44.7) while Milwaukee ranks 28th (38.6).
The Bucks rank ninth in points in the paint per game (46.8) while the Suns rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.3).
Milwaukee ranks eighth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.2) while Phoenix ranks 26th (18.8).
The Suns rank 19th in three pointers attempted per game (27.4) while the Bucks rank 25th (24.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.0, down from 6.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 94.4 points per game (10.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.4 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
