Expect a low-scoring game when the Phoenix Suns (20-58) and Houston Rockets (38-40) square off at the Toyota Center. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, Apr. 7 and can be seen on RSW and FA+.
The Rockets are expecting a better outcome after their 88-86 loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Despite the loss, Dwight Howard earned his 37th double-double this season with 14 points and 16 rebounds. The Suns, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 103-90 loss against the Hawks on Tuesday. Devin Booker had a game-high 34 points.
The physical Rockets offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this one. They rank first in the league at getting to the line (free throw attempt rate of 35.7), while Phoenix is among the NBA’s most foul-prone teams (giving up a 29th-ranked free throw attempt rate of 32.0). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Suns, which ranks 30th in ball security (turnover percentage of 16.4%). They’ll be going up against the disruptive defense of the Rockets, which forces the second-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7%).
The Rockets have emerged victorious in both games against the Suns this year, including a 116-100 win the last time these two teams met. James Harden put up a double-double in the victory with 27 points and 10 rebounds.
The Rockets have gone 38-39 Straight Up (SU) and 33-43-1 Against The Spread (ATS). While they boast a record of against Western Conference opponents at home, they have struggled to beat the spread in those same games, going 15-23. The Rockets have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the league in offense with 105.7 points per game. The Rockets are one of the best in the NBA in terms of three-point field goals, making 10.0 shots per game from beyond the arc. Houston’s defenders lead the NBA in steals with 9.9 per game. Houston is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 18.7 points per game.
Over on the other bench, the Suns have 20-58 SU and 33-45 ATS records. Despite having a winning record against the Western Conference, Phoenix is unsuccessful ATS in those games with a record of 13-26.
In their previous meeting this season, Houston beat Phoenix, bumping its SU record to 7-3 over the Suns in their last 10 meetings. Furthermore, the Rockets hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hou
Notes
“Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games “.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games “.
“Houston is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home”.
“The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games at home”.
“Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Phoenix”.
“Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Phoenix”.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing Phoenix”.
“Houston is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Phoenix”.
“Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix”.
“The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston”.
Phoenix ranks 22nd in points per game with 100.1, while Houston ranks 26th in points allowed with an average of 106.4 given up.
Phoenix ranks 25th in points per away game with 97.4 points, while Houston ranks 24th in points allowed at home with 104.5.
When giving up fewer than 100 points, the Phoenix Suns have an 8-7 record. When scoring fewer than 100 points, the Houston Rockets have an underachieving record of 2-17.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Suns are just 12-51 this season. Houston is a winning 36-23 when registering triple digits.
The Suns have an offensive rating of 99.5 (ranked 28th), while the Rockets rank 23rd for their defensive rating of 106.8.
Houston has an average field goal percentage of 44.8%. Phoenix is an abysmal 6-45 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
On average, Houston attempts 30.0 three pointers and Phoenix attempts 25.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Rockets have a 32-33 record while the Suns have a subpar 12-35 record.
The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.43 this season (ranked 26th), while the Suns rank last in the league with an A/TO of 1.24.
The Houston Rockets rebound 43.1 times per game and are ranked 19th. Ranked ninth, the Phoenix Suns rebound 44.4 times per game.
The Phoenix Suns rank seventh in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 27th in defensive rebounding.
Houston is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.7% (ranked second). Phoenix has a losing record of 13-32 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 15.7% or greater.
