NBA Odds: Suns (even)
The Oklahoma City Thunder (32-25) try to continue their seven-game winning streak when they meet the faltering Phoenix Suns (29-28) at the US Airways Center. Action begins at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday, Feb. 26 and can be seen on TNT and FSN-OK.
The Suns are hoping for a better outcome after their 115-110 loss to the Celtics on Monday. Despite the loss, Eric Bledsoe earned his eighth double-double this season with 21 points and 10 assists. The Thunder, meanwhile, are coming off a 105-92 win against the Pacers on Tuesday. Serge Ibaka claimed his 16th double-double of the season with 23 points and 10 rebounds.
Ibaka has been hot for the Thunder, averaging 17.4 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks over the past five games.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, this will be a matchup of two heavyweights. Phoenix’s upper-echelon offense is ranked fifth in the league in that metric at 51.7%, while Oklahoma City is third-best in the NBA at making opponents miss (47.4%). The Thunder could also control the offensive glass in this matchup, as they rank third in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 28.1%. The Suns, meanwhile, place near the bottom of the league (26th) on the defensive backboards with a defensive rebound percentage of 72.7%.
The Thunder have emerged victorious in both games against the Suns this year, escaping with a narrow 137-134 victory the last time these teams met. Kevin Durant put up a double-double in the victory with 44 points and 10 rebounds.
The odds for Phoenix and Oklahoma City are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Suns come into this game 29-28 Straight Up (SU) and 28-26-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 14-20 SU and 13-18-3 ATS against the Western Conference. The Suns have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the league in home offense with 107.4 points per game. The Suns are one of the best in the NBA in terms of free throw percentage, shooting an impressive .780 from the free throw line. Phoenix is one of the league’s top scoring teams off turnovers with an average of 18.5 points per game. Phoenix will look to take advantage of the Thunder and their propensity to foul. Oklahoma City has committed the 27th-most fouls in the league, averaging 22.2 per game.
In the other locker room, the Thunder have a record of 28-27-2 ATS and 32-25 SU. Oklahoma City performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning an 8-2 record. Offensively, the Thunder have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 101.3 points per game by averaging 111.7 during that stretch. The Thunder have controlled the glass with an NBA-best 47.4 per game. Defensive rebounding is an area where Oklahoma City has excelled. The Thunder average 31.8 defensive rebounds per game, best in the league. One advantage for the Thunder could be Phoenix’s high fouls per game average of 22.1.
With the Thunder’s last win against Phoenix, their SU record is now 8-2 over the Suns in the last 10 meetings. The Thunder also lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. Oklahoma City held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once, while Phoenix was never able to do so in their most recent 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – OKC, ATS Winner – OKC
Notes
Oklahoma City ranks 11th in points per game with 101.3, while Phoenix ranks 28th in points allowed with an average of 105.2 given up.
Phoenix ranks 29th in points allowed per home game (103.8 PPG), while Oklahoma City ranks 14th in points per away game with 98.9.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a solid 22-9. In games where they score fewer than 100 points, the Phoenix Suns have an abysmal record of 4-13.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a poor 10-16 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Phoenix Suns are 25-15 when they hit the century mark.
The Suns have a defensive rating of 104.5 (ranked 21st), while the Thunder rank 14th for their offensive rating of 103.1.
The Phoenix Suns have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking sixth in the league with a FG% of 46.2%. The Oklahoma City Thunder have split their games 9-9 when opponents record a similar or higher FG%.
Phoenix attempts an average of 26.6 three pointers per game, and Oklahoma City attempts 22.5 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Suns have an 18-22 record while the Thunder have a 7-8 record.
The Phoenix Suns rank 25th with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.45. The Oklahoma City Thunder have a higher A/TO (1.45), ranking 24th.
The Thunder earn a league-high 47.4 rebounds per game, while the Suns rank 19th with 42.6 per game.
Phoenix is ranked 20th in defensive rebounds, while Oklahoma City ranks third in offensive rebounds.
Phoenix ranks eighth in forced turnovers with an average rate of 15.3%. Oklahoma City has a 10-12 record when they suffer a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
