The Phoenix Suns (3-14) look to put an end to their eight-game road losing streak in a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks (13-4) at Fiserv Forum. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 23, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 228.5 points with Milwaukee set as a 14-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Suns failed to cover as 1.5-point favorites in their 124-116 loss to the Chicago Bulls in their last outing. The game’s total points (240) finished well over the O/U total of 217.5. Chicago’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Phoenix. The Bulls had a rate of 0.259 (above their season average of 0.182), while the Suns posted a mark of 0.102 (below their season average of 0.192). Deandre Ayton played well for Phoenix, putting up 18 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.
The last time the Bucks took the floor, they easily got past the Portland Trail Blazers, 143-100, comfortably covering as 7.5-point favorites. The game’s total points (243) finished well over the projected point total of 227. The Bucks had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2 (above their season average of 23.6) and held the Trail Blazers to an effective field goal percentage of 0.410 (below their season average of 0.526). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s top scorer with 33 points on 13-for-20 shooting from the field.
After the Bucks won both matchups against the Suns last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last game, Milwaukee won 109-105. The Bucks made 28 of their 37 free throws (75.7 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (16.3 vs. 19.3).
Phoenix heads into the game with records of 3-14 straight up (SU) and 7-10 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Suns’ games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS. Of the Bucks’ 17 games, 13 have finished over the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. T.J. Warren (23 points,1.4 steals,1.2 blocks) has been fantastic for the Suns while Eric Bledsoe (18 points,5.6 rebounds,5.2 assists,2.6 steals) has made great contributions to the Bucks.
Milwaukee could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their prolific offense squares off against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Bucks currently rank first in offensive efficiency, while Phoenix ranks 30th in defensive efficiency. Additionally, the Suns, who rank 28th in offensive rebounding percentage (17.9 percent), will go head-to-head against the Bucks, who rank second in defensive rebounding percentage (80.8 percent).
Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Phoenix is 2-6 ATS with 5 overs and 3 unders.
Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS at home with 8 overs and 2 unders.
Phoenix is 1-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Milwaukee is 3-0.
The Suns are 3-8 when they score more than 100 points, while the Bucks are 13-4.
Milwaukee ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (40.4) while Phoenix ranks last (54.2).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (9.4) while the Suns rank 28th (18.5).
Milwaukee ranks first in rebounds per game (51.8) while Phoenix ranks 28th (39.6).
The Suns rank third in three pointers allowed per game (27.6) while the Bucks rank 27th (37.4).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks per game (6.2) while Phoenix ranks 27th (3.8).
The Bucks rank 6 in steals allowed per game (7.0588235294117645) while the Suns rank 27 (9.941176470588236).
Milwaukee ranks 2 in second chance points allowed per game (10.647058823529411) while Phoenix ranks 22 (14.470588235294118).
The Bucks average 27.058823529411764 assists per game, which ranks 3 in the league. The Suns rank 23 in assists allowed per game (25.176470588235293).
Milwaukee averages 18.41176470588235 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 9 in the league. Phoenix ranks 28 in points off turnovers allowed per game (21.294117647058822).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 4.0, down from 10.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 120.8 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.4 points per game (2.1 below their season average).
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