The Oklahoma City Thunder (0-4) seek their first win when they square off against the Phoenix Suns (1-4) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports – Arizona at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 28, 2018.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
In the Suns’ last game, they were 5-point favorites and were defeated by the Memphis Grizzlies, 117-96. The combined points for the game (213) came in well under the projected point total of 238.5. Memphis’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix. The Grizzlies had a rate of 11.9 (worse than their season average of 10.9), while the Suns posted a mark of 18.0. Deandre Ayton was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 12-for-13 shooting.
The Thunder fell to the Boston Celtics in their last game, 101-95, despite being 1-point favorites. The game’s combined points (196) were well under the projected point total of 219.5. One of Boston’s largest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They had 33 free throw attempts, while Oklahoma City had 25. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 13 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists in the contest.
Oklahoma City appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass in this showdown. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.4 percent), while Phoenix ranks 20th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent) dating back to the 2017-18 season. It could also be an error-filled game for the Suns’ offense, which ranks 28th in ball security (turnover percentage of 14.9 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Thunder, which has forced the most turnovers in the league (15.2 percent).
Since last season, the Suns have had records of 22-65 straight up (SU) and 41-43-2 against the spread (ATS). Since last season, Phoenix games have finished over the O/U total 58.1 percent of the time.
The Thunder, on the other hand, have records of 48-38 SU and 48-42-1 ATS since last season. Oklahoma City’s games have had a tendency to go under the O/U total over that same time frame (56.0 percent).
The Thunder won two out of three matchups against the Suns last season. In the most recent contest, Oklahoma City won 115-87. The Thunder had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.606 vs. 0.386) and had a better free throw rate (0.225 vs. 0.174).
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When holding opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 8-2 and Oklahoma City is 23-6.
The Thunder are 46-21 when they score more than 100 points, while the Suns are 17-38.
Oklahoma City averages 9.0 steals per game, which ranks first in the league. Phoenix ranks last in steals allowed per game (8.8).
The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (18.8) while the Suns rank last in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9).
Oklahoma City averages 14.9 fast break points per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Phoenix ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (15.2).
The Thunder average 45.3 rebounds per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Suns rank 27th in rebounds allowed per game (45.7).
Oklahoma City ranks ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while Phoenix ranks last (5.9).
The Thunder average 15.3 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Suns rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.1).
Oklahoma City ranks ninth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.8) while Phoenix ranks 26th (47.6).
The Suns rank 19th in three pointers attempted per game (28.2) while the Thunder rank 21st in three pointers allowed per game (30.5).
Phoenix is 27th in the league with 21.6 assists per game while Oklahoma City is 29th with 21.0 assists per game.
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