It figures to be a high-scoring affair as the Pittsburgh Panthers (17-6) head to North Carolina to play the No. 9-ranked Tar Heels (20-4). Action begins at 1:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 14 and can be seen on EFC and ES3.
The Tar Heels barely escaped Boston College 68-65 the last time they played. Justin Jackson was the team’s high scorer with 20 points on 9-for-11 shooting. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a tough 65-63 loss at the hands of Miami (FL) in their last outing. Ryan Luther had a team-high 12 points.
It might turn into a shootout as a pair of the nation’s top offenses match up. North Carolina ranks 14th in the country with 116.8 points per 100 possessions, while Pittsburgh is 10th in that metric (117.7).
While the Tar Heels have a good Straight Up (SU) record (20-4), they’ve been poor Against The Spread (ATS) with an 8-14-2 record. North Carolina has averaged 69.8 points per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 83.8. The Tar Heels are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting a stellar .480 from the field. Expect to see a lot of second-chance opportunities for North Carolina in this matchup, which is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 13.8 offensive boards per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than North Carolina, which ranks third at 1.66.
In the other locker room, the Panthers have 17-6 SU and 11-11 ATS records. While Pittsburgh has gone 3-7 ATS over its past 10 matchups, they’ve excelled SU with a record of 8-2. The Panthers convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking third in the nation at .774. The Panthers rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.61.
This game marks the season’s first head-to-head clash between North Carolina and Pittsburgh. Their previous game was a Panthers victory, bringing their SU record to 2-1. The Panthers also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 2-1.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
North Carolina is one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation, averaging 83.8 points per game (ranked 11th). Pittsburgh allows 66.3 points per game (ranked 45th).
Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 70.0 points per away game this season. North Carolina averages 86.8 points per home game, ranking 11th in scoring.
Ranked 14th, the North Carolina Tar Heels have an offensive rating of 116.8. The Pittsburgh Panthers rank 107th with a defensive rating of just 99.9.
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 71.7 possessions per game and 1.168 points per possession, while the Pittsburgh Panthers earn fewer possessions (66.6) but more points per possession (1.177).
Pittsburgh has an average effective field goal percentage of 52.9%. North Carolina is a winning 2-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
This season, North Carolina has averaged 17.0 three pointers and Pittsburgh has averaged 17.0. When North Carolina and Pittsburgh attempt at least 20 three pointers, both teams are undefeated with records of 7-0.
North Carolina ranks among the best in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.66 (ranked third). Pittsburgh is ranked in the top 25 at fifth with an A/TO of 1.61.
North Carolina, the 19th-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 40.9 rebounds per game. Pittsburgh ranks 74th with 38.4.
North Carolina and Pittsburgh are well matched when it comes to rebounding. North Carolina ranks 71st in defensive rebounds, while Pittsburgh ranks 71st in offensive rebounds.
On average, Pittsburgh forces a turnover rate of 17.7%. When North Carolina turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 5-3 record.
