The Pittsburgh Pirates will play the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be televised on ATPT and FSFL.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Vegas has listed Miami (+125) as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-135). The total is sitting at 8.5 runs and gamblers can wager on the over for even money (+100) or the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at +110 for the Pirates -1.5 runs and -130 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Pirates are 10-4 SU and have gone 8-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 5.5 units for moneyline bettors this year and 4.0 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Marlins are 4-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. They’ve lost 2.3 units for moneyline bettors and 6.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Marlins games have an over/under record of 7-6 thus far in 2018. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 9-4.
The Pirates have gained 6.8 units and are 7-3 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.1 units and are 3-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, as opposed to four which went under the total.
Ivan Nova (1-1, 5.19 ERA) will get the nod for Pittsburgh. The right-handed Nova started 31 games last year while finishing the season 11-14 overall with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He made two starts against Miami in 2017 and compiled a 2-0 record against the Marlins with a 0.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts.
The Marlins are rolling with righty Jose Urena (0-2, 5.06 ERA) as their starter. Urena started 28 games last year and finished the season 14-7 overall with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 5.5 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.
The Miami offense is putting up 3.3 runs per outing, including 2.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .253/.311/.355 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ offense has been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and shortstop Miguel Rojas. Anderson is slashing .288/.413/.423 with 15 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored, while Rojas has produced a line of .291/.350/.436 with 16 hits, four RBIs and six runs scored.
Compared to his total season slash line of .262/.337/.369, Anderson seemed to enjoy hitting righties at home last season, slashing .303/.425/.455 over 40 such plate appearances.
For the visiting squad, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.81 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 6.46, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 6.85.
Pirates hitters have slashed .265/.343/.451 on their way to 5.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco. Dickerson is slashing .347/.385/.592 with 17 hits, 10 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Polanco (.220/.333/.600) is up to 11 hits, five homers, 15 RBIs and 11 runs scored.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
Miami has posted 18.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.0 over its last five.
The Pirates have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
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