Matt Garza (4-5, 5.27 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (56-71) meet Ryan Vogelsong (2-3, 2.98 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (64-61) in the second of a four-game division series at Miller Park. The Pirates won the last game 3-2, and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Aug. 26 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
In his most recent outing, Garza pitched 3.2 innings, giving up six runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking one in a 7-6 victory over the Mariners. Ryan Braun (.317, 66 Rs, 24 HRs, 74 RBIs, 13 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. The Pirates were unsuccessful the last time Vogelsong pitched. He pitched well, going 6.0 innings, allowing three, striking out five and walking two in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins.
Milwaukee, a +110 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The matchup currently has a nine-run Over/Under (O/U). The Brewers are 36-53 as the underdog and have an overall money line of -691. They have not performed well against their division, earning a SU record of 17-29 and a 13-24 record when they were the underdog. The Brewers are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with an MLB-high 144 steals.
On the other side, the Pirates have a record of 33-35 when they are favored and are -174 overall with the money line. Over the last 10 games, the team is winless as the favorite with a 0-5 record and 5-5 SU. When it comes to scoring, the Pirates haven’t performed as well against teams from the NL Central. During those games, they averaged four runs per game, below their 4.5 runs per game season average.
The Brewers will take on a right-hander (Vogelsong) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 32-54. The right-handed Garza will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 45-53 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Pirates won by a margin of one run. The Brewers are 17-24 in one-run games. The Pirates have an 18-15 record in close games.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are coming in with a 33-21 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 11-59. The Pirates have a 16-47 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league at 26th when it comes to home runs, hitting 117 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half with 142.
Ranking 13th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.10 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.78.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.731). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .733.
The Pirates are 33-48 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 34-54 when they allow at least one homer.
