Jeff Locke (4-3, 4.73 ERA) and Alex Wood (4-5, 3.44 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (42-32) and the Atlanta Braves (35-40) at PNC Park. The Braves lost the last game 8-4, continuing a five-game losing streak. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 28 and can be seen on FSN-S and ROOT-PIT.
Locke is 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in his appearances against the Braves, and goes up against a good Atlanta offense which is batting .257 this season. Starling Marte (.279, 41 Rs, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs, 15 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 3 for 4 with three runs, one RBI, and one stolen base. Wood is 0-2 with a 3.48 ERA against the Pirates in his career. He takes on a quality Pittsburgh offense that’s batting .255. Cameron Maybin (.286, 29 Rs, 6 HRs, 36 RBIs, 13 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -135 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +270 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 35-18. The Pirates have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits at home with an impressive 8.9 per game. Pittsburgh is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 55 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Atlanta has a 25-33 record and an overall money line of +208. Offensively, the Braves have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 2.4 during that stretch. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out on the road with an NL-low 7.0 per game.
The Pirates lead the season series, 4-1. The Pirates have an 8-5 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Wood takes the mound. Locke (LHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 4-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Atlanta has won 37% (15-26) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Pittsburgh has won 41% (12-17) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Braves have a 3-2 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Pirates have a slight leg up on the Braves, as the Pirates have won their last two games while the Braves have lost their last five.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 26-12. The Pirates have a 31-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the bottom half of the league based on total runs this season, Pittsburgh ranks 18th with 297 runs and Atlanta is 17th with 302.
Ranking 22nd, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 188 this season. Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 16th with 220.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 24-15. When the Braves hit at least one homer, they have a 19-13 record.
