Jeff Locke (2-0, 1.93 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 6.10 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (7-8) and the Chicago Cubs (8-6) at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 4-3 and Chicago leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Apr. 23 and can be seen on CSN-CHI and ROOT-PIT.
Locke is 1-1 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts against the Cubs. Starling Marte (.224, 10 Rs, 5 HRs, 12 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run. Hendricks went 6.0 innings, surrendering two runs and striking out eight in a 7-6 defeat to the Padres in his most recent start. Anthony Rizzo (.319, 11 Rs, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate to the start the season for the Cubs, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -121 favorite against Chicago and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -321 and a record as the favorite of 4-5. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a 3-3 record as favorite and a 5-6 record SU. The Pirates have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They average 4.0 runs per game on the season. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank second in the NL in strikeouts per game with 9.0.
Over in the other dugout, Chicago is coming in with an overall money line of +246 and an impressive record of 4-1 as the dog. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 7-3 SU record over the same span. The Cubs are an excellent base stealing team with 16 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. The Cubs average 4.1 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 3.1 against division foes. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the second-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.1 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.5 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs lead the season series, 2-1. The Pirates have a 6-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Hendricks takes the mound.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Cubs lost by a margin of one run. The Pirates are 2-4 in one-run games. The Cubs have a 4-3 record in close games.
Pittsburgh has won 20% (1-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 67% (4-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
After a weak showing last week where they got in seven hits, the Pirates need to step it up. The Cubs have a record of 3-2 when opponents get seven hits or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 1-6. The Cubs have a 3-5 record when opponents outhit them.
Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league at 16th when it comes to home runs, hitting 13 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 16.
Ranking 14th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.07 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.38.
Ranking 25th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.636). Chicago ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .716.
When the Cubs allow at least one home run, they are 4-4. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 2-6 record.
