This matchup has the potential to be a pitchers’ duel as Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates take on Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (97-65) in Game 1 of the Wild Card Elimination Game at PNC Park. The Cubs come into this series hoping to extend an eight-game winning streak. Action begins at 8:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 7 and can be seen on TBS.
Cole pitched 7.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs and striking out two in an 8-2 win over the Cardinals. Pedro Alvarez (.243, 60 Rs, 27 HRs, 77 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 Sunday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Arrieta went 6.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and striking out seven in a 6-1 win over the Brewers in his most recent start. Anthony Rizzo (.278, 94 Rs, 31 HRs, 101 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 4 Sunday with two RBIs.
Chicago takes on Pittsburgh as a -125 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at five runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of +2,146 and a record as the underdog of 20-26. Pittsburgh has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 8-18 and 34-42 as the underdog and SU respectively. The Pirates have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 3.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.3 runs per game. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.2 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.7 season average. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.3.
In the other locker room, Chicago is coming in with an overall money line of +1,757 and an impressive record of 72-38 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with an 8-1 record and an 8-2 record SU. Chicago is excellent at drawing walks with an NL-best 3.5 per game. The Cubs allow 3.8 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 1.6 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cubs are the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.15 for the season. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.8 strikeouts per game.
The Cubs lead the season series, 11-8.
Predictions: SU Winner – ChC, O/U – Over
Notes
After last game’s shutout win against the Cincinnati, the Pirates now have 13 shutouts this season. The Cubs have been shut out in 10 games this season.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 10 strikeouts. The Cubs have a record of 39-32 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 18-46. The Pirates have a 20-49 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league at 23rd when it comes to home runs, hitting 140 this season. Chicago ranks in the top half at 12th with 171.
Ranking 14th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.26 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.05.
Pittsburgh and Chicago both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Pittsburgh sits at 18th with an OPS of .721 and Chicago ranks 17th with an OPS of .721.
The Cubs are 43-42 when they allow at least one home run. The Pirates perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 42-40 record.
