A.J. Burnett (0-1, 2.25 ERA) and Jake Arrieta (1-1, 1.98 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-6) and the Chicago Cubs (6-5) at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 20 and can be seen on CSN-CHI and ROOT-PIT.
Burnett is 7-4 with a 3.25 ERA in his appearances against the Cubs, and goes up against a below-average Chicago offense which is batting just .227 this season. Pedro Alvarez (.256, 8 Rs, 4 HRs, 7 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. Arrieta is 3-0 with a 3.13 ERA against the Pirates in his career. He takes on a below-average Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .222. Dexter Fowler (.271, 8 Rs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate to the start the season, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -122 favorite against Chicago and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -164 and a record as the favorite of 3-3. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a 2-1 record as favorite and a 4-4 record SU. The Pirates have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 4.5 runs per game. They average 3.7 runs per game on the season. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 3.5 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.2 season average. The Pirates are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.05 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank second in the NL in strikeouts per game with 9.1.
Over in the other dugout, Chicago is coming in with an overall money line of +128 and an impressive record of 2-1 as the dog. They are 3-2 against NL Central rivals. Offensively, the Cubs have really sputtered in division games. They have decreased their season average of 4.3 runs per game by averaging 3.2 in those contests. The Cubs are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 13 stolen bases. The Cubs average 3.8 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 2.4 against division foes. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the fourth-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.1 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.7 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Pirates have a 5-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Arrieta takes the mound. Burnett (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 6-3 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 33% (1-2) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 50% (2-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Cubs have a record of 2-3 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 0-4. The Cubs have a 3-5 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh and Chicago both rank in the top half of the league in home runs. Pittsburgh sits at 12th with 12 home runs this season and Chicago ranks 15th with 11.
Ranking 14th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.09 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 7.60.
Ranking 22nd, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.636). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 16th with an OPS of .687.
The Cubs are 2-3 when they allow at least one home run. The Pirates perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 2-5 record.
