Gerrit Cole (11-2, 1.78 ERA) gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-30) as they go up against Mike Leake (4-4, 4.01 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (32-37) in the second of a three-game series at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 7-6 and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 24 and will air on FSN-OH and ROOT-PIT.
In his last start, Cole pitched 7.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out four and walking three in a 3-2 victory over the White Sox. Andrew McCutchen (.292, 37 Rs, 9 HRs, 44 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Pirates, Leake is 7-3 with a 3.10 ERA, 89 strikeouts and 42 walks. Joey Votto (.300, 37 Rs, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -167 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is six runs. The Pirates perform well as a favorite with a 33-16 record and have an overall money line of +404. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (7-1). The Pirates will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In the last 10 games, Pittsburgh has only averaged 2.9 runs per game compared to the 4.0 they’ve averaged on the season. The Pirates are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 52 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Pirates rank second in the NL in home ERA with a 2.63 team average. The Pirates are fourth in the league in WHIP at 1.20.
Switching gears, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .324 when playing as the underdog (12-25) and an overall money line of -526. Against divisional opponents, they are 13-15 SU and 8-12 as the underdog. The Reds have racked up 69 steals on the year, making them the most threatening base-running team in the league.
The Reds have gotten the best of the Pirates in head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-2. This game will feature Leake (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 31-25 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the right-hander Cole. They sport a 23-27 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Reds lost by a margin of one run. The Pirates are 13-11 in one-run games. The Reds have a 9-13 record in close games.
Pittsburgh has won 41% (11-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 41% (12-17) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 8-12 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-26. The Pirates have a 7-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 24th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 56 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 83 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.28 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.75.
Ranking 20th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .720.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 15-29, well-matched with the Pirates who are 11-20 when allowing at least one homer.
