Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Gerrit Cole (4-0, 1.76 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-14) meet Mike Leake (1-1, 3.03 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (13-13) in the second of a three-game series at PNC Park. The Reds won the last game 7-1 and Cincinnati leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 6 and will air on FSN-OH and ROOT-PIT.
Cole has a 4.50 ERA and a 0-1 record in his career against the Reds, and faces a struggling Cincinnati offense that’s hitting just .230 on the year. Starling Marte (.264, 14 Rs, 7 HRs, 18 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his career against the Pirates, Leake is 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .227. Joey Votto (.330, 15 Rs, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Reds, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -158 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Pirates are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they’re the favorite (9-6), their overall money line (-222) is less impressive. They are 4-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Pirates have given up an average of 3.6 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 3.1.
On the other side, the Reds have a subpar record of 5-8 when they are the underdog and are -134 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 4-6 SU and have a poor 0-2 record when they were an underdog to win. Cincinnati is one of the top home-run-hitting teams in the league with 36 home runs. The Reds have racked up 30 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league. Shifting to the pitching staff, they allow just 7.7 hits per game, good for tops in the NL. The Cincinnati pitching staff has been an intimidating group this year, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per game.
So far this season, the Reds are 4-0 against the Pirates. The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Leake) in this game and have a 12-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the right-hander Cole. They sport a 10-10 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Cincinnati is 5-4, while Pittsburgh is 2-5.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Pirates are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Reds have a 4-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 2-10. The Reds have a 4-8 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 21 this season. Cincinnati ranks third with 36 home runs.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Pittsburgh sits at 11th with 7.92 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 13th with 7.60.
Ranking 29th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.631). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 17th with an OPS of .694.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 9-12. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 2-8 record.
