In the second of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (97-63) and the Cincinnati Reds (63-97) at PNC Park, A.J. Burnett (9-6, 3.15 ERA) and Brandon Finnegan (4-2, 3.86 ERA) get the start. The Reds lost the last game 6-4, extending a 13-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and will air on FSOH and RTPT.
In his last start, Burnett pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out five and walking two in a 4-0 loss to the Cubs. Andrew McCutchen (.296, 91 Rs, 23 HRs, 96 RBIs, 11 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. The Reds were also unsuccessful the last time Finnegan pitched. He tossed 5.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out three and walking two in a 5-1 loss to the Nationals. Joey Votto (.316, 95 Rs, 29 HRs, 79 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. Against teams in the NL Central, the Pirates have a SU record of 33-41. The Pirates have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As for the pitching staff, the Pirates rank second in the NL in ERA with a 3.26 team average.
Against divisional rivals, the Reds are 32-42 SU. The Reds will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Cincinnati’s run production has dropped to 2.6 runs per game, compared to 4.3 for the duration of the season. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 133 stolen bases. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 7.6 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.7.
The Reds have mostly come out on top against the Pirates in their previous 17 games this season, earning a 10-7 record. This game will feature Finnegan (LHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have an 18-15 record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Burnett will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 49-72 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit
Notes
Pittsburgh is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games.
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s last 12 games when playing Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
The Pirates hold a 33-41 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Reds’ record in these matchups is 32-42.
When leading after 7 innings, Pittsburgh is 37-35, while Cincinnati is 23-37.
The Reds managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with an 11-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 48-20. The Pirates have a 69-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 637 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 11th with 692.
Ranking 17th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 458 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 489.
The Pirates are 64-28 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Reds are 54-46 when they hit at least one homer.
