Jeff Locke (2-1, 4.76 ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (0-1, 5.40 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-13) and the Cincinnati Reds (12-13) at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May. 5 and can be seen on FSN-OH and ROOT-PIT.
Locke is 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his appearances against the Reds, and goes up against a below-average Cincinnati offense which is batting just .226 this season. Starling Marte (.258, 13 Rs, 6 HRs, 17 RBIs, 4 SBs) had another good game Sunday, going 2 for 6 with one stolen base. Lorenzen went 5.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking one in an 8-3 defeat to the Brewers in his most recent start. Joey Votto (.323, 15 Rs, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 Sunday.
The odds for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a record of 8-11 SU. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 3.6 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.1 season average.
The Reds are 10-11 against NL Central rivals. The Reds can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking third in the league with 34 home runs. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 29 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are second in the NL with an average of 7.7 hits allowed per game. The Reds have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.1 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Reds have the edge in the season series, 3-0. The Pirates have a 12-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lorenzen takes the mound.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 29% (2-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 56% (5-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are coming in with a 3-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 2-9. The Reds have a 4-8 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 15th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 20 this season. Cincinnati ranks third with 34 home runs.
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Pittsburgh sits at 11th with 7.92 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 13th with 7.60.
Ranking 27th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.636). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .685.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 8-12. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 2-7 record.
