Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (96-63) go up against Keyvius Sampson (2-6, 6.46 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (63-96) in the first of a three-game division series at PNC Park. The Reds enter this series on a 12-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 2 and will air on FSOH and RTPT.
In his most recent outing, Liriano pitched 7.2 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out nine and walking three in a 4-0 victory over the Cubs. Andrew McCutchen (.293, 89 Rs, 22 HRs, 95 RBIs, 11 SBs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday. The Reds were unsuccessful to the Mets 8-1 the last time Sampson pitched. He went 2.2 innings, allowing two runs (three unearned) and striking out two. Joey Votto (.317, 94 Rs, 29 HRs, 79 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Reds, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a considerable -235 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Pirates have a winning record of 76-37 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +2,129. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (6-2). The Pirates come into the game with the fifth-ranked scoring offense in the NL, averaging 4.3 runs per game. The Pirates are a superb hitting team with 9.1 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the NL. Turning to the pitching staff, the Pirates rank second in the NL in ERA with a 3.26 team average.
On the other side, the Reds have a subpar record of 34-70 when they are the underdog and are -3,025 overall with the money line. Over the last 10 games, they were winless both as the underdog with a 0-10 record and 0-10 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.1 runs per game, below their 4.0 season average. The Reds have racked up 132 steals on the year, making them the most threatening base-running team in the league. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 7.0 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.7.
The Reds have mostly come out on top against the Pirates in their previous 16 games this season, earning a 10-6 record. This game will feature Sampson (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 78-48 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the left-hander Liriano. Southpaw starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 5-14 on the road and 14-24 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Pirates lost by a margin of 10 runs. The Reds are 2-3 in games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more. The Pirates have a 1-2 record in blowouts.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Pirates are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Reds have a 20-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 11-69. The Pirates have a 19-48 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 23rd in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 137 this season. Cincinnati ranks 13th with 165 home runs.
Ranking ninth, Cincinnati is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.53 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.07.
Ranking 22nd, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.711). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 17th with an OPS of .722.
The Reds are 30-73 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Pirates are 41-39 when they allow at least one homer.
