Charlie Morton (6-1, 4.28 ERA) and Trevor Bauer (6-5, 3.96 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-33) and the Cleveland Indians (37-41) at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Jul. 3 and can be seen on STO and ROOT-PIT.
Morton pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs and striking out six in an 8-4 win over the Braves. Starling Marte (.288, 44 Rs, 13 HRs, 48 RBIs, 16 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. Bauer went 7.0 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out five and walking one in a 4-0 defeat to the Orioles in his last outing. Jason Kipnis (.347, 55 Rs, 6 HRs, 35 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Indians, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a -131 favorite against Cleveland and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +416 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 37-19. Against the AL, they have had a solid season, earning 6-4 and 7-4 records as the favorite and SU respectively. Pittsburgh is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 61 bases. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 4.6 runs per game, well above its season average of 3.4.
In games where it is the underdog, Cleveland has a 12-14 record and an overall money line of -1,406. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-3 record, and a 5-5 record SU. Offensively, the Indians have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 3.3 in those contests. The Indians have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 9.2 strikeouts per game.
The Pirates have a 36-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Bauer takes the mound. Morton (RHP) will be on the hill against the Indians, who have a 25-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Cleveland is 13-12, while Pittsburgh is 14-18.
The Pirates managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Indians who are coming in with a 21-13 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 6-30. The Pirates have an 8-24 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 26th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 61 this season. Cleveland ranks 19th with 67 home runs.
Ranking ninth, Cleveland is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.51 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.04.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Pittsburgh sits at 18th with an OPS of .706 and Cleveland ranks 16th with an OPS of .716.
The Indians are 23-33 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Pirates are 15-23 when they allow at least one homer.
