Charlie Morton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (21-22) meet David Phelps (2-1, 3.21 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (18-27) in the first of a three-game series at PNC Park. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 25 and will air on FSN-FL and ROOT-PIT.
Morton is 5-3 with a 4.03 ERA against the Marlins in his career, and faces a strong Miami offense that’s hitting .260 on the year. Andrew McCutchen (.261, 24 Rs, 7 HRs, 27 RBIs, 2 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Pirates, Phelps is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, five strikeouts and three walks. Dee Gordon (.376, 25 Rs, 14 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Pittsburgh is a -136 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Pirates are 16-13 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -560. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, ranking second in the NL with an average of only 6.5 strikeouts per home game. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Pirates rank third in the NL in ERA with a 3.18 team average.
Switching gears, the Marlins come into this game with a win percentage of .421 when playing as the underdog (8-11) and an overall money line of -1,222. Over the last 10 games, they were unbeaten as the underdog with a perfect 1-0 record and 2-8 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.8 runs per game, below their 3.8 season average. Shifting to the pitching staff, they allow just 2.8 walks per game, good for fifth in the NL.
The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Phelps) in this game and have a 19-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Morton will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 12-25 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
The Marlins are 2-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 0-6 in such matchups.
The Marlins managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 3-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 15-9. The Pirates have a 15-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Miami sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 173 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 175.
Ranking 27th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 107 this season. Miami ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 117.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 14-11. When the Marlins hit at least one homer, they have an 8-14 record.
