In the last of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (5-6) and the Milwaukee Brewers (5-6) at PNC Park, Gerrit Cole (1-0, 3.27 ERA) and Matt Garza (1-1, 4.22 ERA) take the mound. The Pirates won the last game 6-2 and Pittsburgh leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Apr. 19 and will air on FSN-WI and ROOT-PIT.
Cole has a 3.27 ERA and a 1-2 record in his career against the Brewers, and is up against a struggling Milwaukee offense that’s hitting just .220 on the year. In his career against the Pirates, Garza is 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .221. Jean Segura (.350, 5 Rs, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been doing well to start the season for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
Pittsburgh, a -151 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Pirates have a losing record of 2-3 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of -264. They have an SU record of 3-4 against teams in their division and a 1-1 record when they were the favorite in those games. Within their division, Pittsburgh’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 4.3 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.5. They typically aren’t overmatched by pitchers, ranking second in the NL with an average of only 5.8 strikeouts per home game. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 2.50 team ERA at home.
On the other side, the Brewers have a subpar record of 1-3 when they are the underdog and are -683 overall with the money line. Against teams in their division, they are 2-5 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-3 record. Playing against NL Central foes really brings the best out of the Milwaukee pitchers. They allow 4.9 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 5.4. They also allow just 1.8 walks per game, good for tops in the NL.
The Pirates are 4-1 against the Brewers this season. This game will feature Garza (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 4-6 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Cole will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 2-6 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have both won 33% (1-2) of their games when they lead after 7 innings.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Brewers have a 0-2 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Pirates have a slight leg up on the Brewers, as the Pirates have won their last two games while the Brewers have lost their last four.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 5-1. The Brewers have a 1-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 28 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 17th with 41 runs.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Pittsburgh sits at 27th with 20 this season and Milwaukee ranks 26th with 22.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 5-2. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 1-2 record.
