In the first of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (83-55) and the Milwaukee Brewers (61-78) at PNC Park, A.J. Burnett (8-5, 3.06 ERA) and Wily Peralta (5-8, 4.21 ERA) take the mound. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 10 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
In his most recent outing, Burnett pitched 4.1 innings, allowing seven runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking two in a 15-5 loss to the Reds. Jung Ho Kang (.287, 56 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs. The Brewers were unsuccessful to the Reds 7-3 the last time Peralta pitched. He went 2.0 innings, giving up zero runs and walking one. Ryan Braun (.288, 83 Rs, 25 HRs, 81 RBIs, 22 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -168 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Pirates have a winning record of 64-32 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,628. They have disappointing records of 17-18 as the favorite and 24-34 SU within their division. The Pirates have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire NL, averaging 4.2 runs per game. The Pirates rank fourth in the NL in hits with 9.1 per game. Pittsburgh’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Pirates have given up an average of 4.3 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 3.6.
On the other side, the Brewers have a record of 35-48 when they are the underdog and are -1,529 overall with the money line. Over the last 10 games, they were unbeaten as the underdog with a perfect 6-0 record and 7-3 SU. Milwaukee has been playing better lately, averaging 6.5 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.2. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.5.
The Brewers have mostly come out on top against the Pirates in their previous 15 games this season, earning a 9-6 record. The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Peralta) in this game and have a 67-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander Burnett. They sport a 42-62 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Milwaukee is 33-31, while Pittsburgh is 30-29.
The Brewers managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 7-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-60. The Pirates have an 18-41 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league at 21st when it comes to home runs, hitting 120 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 126.
Ranking sixth, Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.66 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.07.
Ranking 20th, Milwaukee is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.714). Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 14th with an OPS of .722.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 34-55. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 34-33 record.
