Francisco Liriano (10-7, 3.28 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (85-56) square off against Taylor Jungmann (9-6, 2.87 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (62-80) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a four-game series at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 10-2 and Pittsburgh leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 13 and can be seen on FSWI and RTPT.
Liriano pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out 10 and walking one in a 7-3 win over the Reds. Andrew McCutchen (.298, 85 Rs, 22 HRs, 91 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one RBI. Jungmann went 3.2 innings, surrendering six runs, striking out three and walking two in a 6-4 defeat to the Marlins in his last outing. Ryan Braun (.290, 84 Rs, 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Pittsburgh, a big -209 favorite, takes on Milwaukee. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +1,653 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 66-33. Within its division, Pittsburgh has a 19-19 record as favorite and a 26-35 record SU. The Pirates have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the NL in offense with 4.3 runs per game. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.1 per game. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.3 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.7 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 36-50 record and an overall money line of -1,564. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 6-2 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.6 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.1 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 10-8. The Pirates have a 69-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Jungmann takes the mound. Liriano (LHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 19-15 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Pittsburgh is 32-30, while Milwaukee is 34-33.
The Brewers managed to give up eight walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 4-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-62. The Pirates have an 18-42 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 21st in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 123 this season. Milwaukee ranks 20th with 128 home runs.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Pittsburgh sits at fourth with 9.06 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks fifth with 8.64.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.712). Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .724.
The Brewers are 35-56 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Pirates are 35-34 when they allow at least one homer.
