Jeff Locke (7-10, 4.56 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (84-56) meet Zach Davies (1-0, 3.97 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (62-79) in the third of a four-game division series at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 6-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 12 and will air on FSWI and RTPT.
In his last start, Locke pitched 5.0 innings, allowing one, striking out six and walking two in a 3-1 loss to the Reds. Andrew McCutchen (.299, 84 Rs, 22 HRs, 90 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with two runs. The Brewers were victorious the last time Davies pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, allowing one run and striking out four in a 9-1 victory over the Marlins.
Pittsburgh is a -171 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Pirates have a winning record of 65-33 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,553. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 25-35 and an 18-19 record when they were the favorite. The Pirates come into the game with the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the NL, averaging 4.2 runs per game. The Pirates are a superb hitting team with 9.1 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the NL. Pittsburgh’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Pirates have given up an average of 4.3 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 3.7.
Switching gears, the Brewers come into this game with a win percentage of .424 when playing as the underdog (36-49) and an overall money line of -1,464. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 7-1 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 7-3. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.0 runs per game, above their 4.2 season average. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.0 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.5.
The Brewers have mostly come out on top against the Pirates in their previous 17 games this season, earning a 10-7 record. The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Davies) in this game and have a 68-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Locke will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 19-15 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
For the 32nd time this season, the Pirates registered at least two errors in a game.
The Pirates are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 33-20 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-61. The Pirates have an 18-42 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 21st in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 122 this season. Milwaukee ranks 20th with 128 home runs.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Pittsburgh sits at fourth with 9.06 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks fifth with 8.65.
Ranking 22nd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.713). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 16th with an OPS of .722.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 35-55. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 35-34 record.
