Charlie Morton (3-0, 2.84 ERA) and Kyle Lohse (3-6, 6.59 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (31-27) and the Milwaukee Brewers (22-37) at PNC Park. The Brewers won the last game 4-1 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 10 and can be seen on FSN-WI and ROOT-PIT.
Morton is 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, but goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .232 this season. Andrew McCutchen (.286, 33 Rs, 8 HRs, 37 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. When pitching against the Pirates, Lohse is 11-5 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh is a -152 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +109 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 25-14. Pittsburgh is an impressive 4-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Pirates, who have a team ERA of only 3.03. The Pirates are the third-best team in the NL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 2.3 walks per game to their opponents this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.3.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 16-22 record and an overall money line of -1,526. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 5-5 record SU. The Brewers have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.4 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Pirates lead the season series, 5-3. The Pirates have a 27-22 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lohse takes the mound. Morton (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a inferior 16-30 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
Milwaukee has won 39% (9-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Pittsburgh has won 42% (10-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Pirates are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have an 8-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Pirates, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Pirates have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 15-4. The Pirates have a 22-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 218 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 13th with 242 runs.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Pittsburgh sits at 22nd with 143 this season and Milwaukee ranks 23rd with 136.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 20-14, well-matched with the Brewers who are 19-14 when hitting one or more homers.
