Vance Worley (1-1, 5.84 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (4-6) go up against Kyle Lohse (0-2, 11.17 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (2-8) in the second of a three-game division series at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 6-3 and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Apr. 18 and will air on FSN-WI and ROOT-PIT.
Worley has a 4.57 ERA and a 2-4 record in his career against the Brewers, but is up against a struggling Milwaukee offense that’s hitting just .225 on the year. Pedro Alvarez (.281, 6 Rs, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and one RBI. In his career against the Pirates, Lohse is 11-4 with a 3.81 ERA. He meets a less-than-stellar Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .220. Jean Segura (.333, 4 Rs, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well to start the season for the Brewers, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a -130 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Pirates are 1-3 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -364. Don’t expect the Pittsburgh hitters to swing wildly in their own ballpark. They average only 5.3 strikeouts per home game. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 2.33 team ERA at home.
On the other side, the Brewers have a record of 1-2 when they are the underdog and are -583 overall with the money line. Against fellow NL Central members, they are 2-4 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-2 record. Milwaukee has stepped up their play against division opponents. They have averaged 2.8 runs per game, more than their season average of 2.6. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.7 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 5.3. They also allow just 1.8 walks per game, best in the NL.
In their previous four games this season, the Pirates have a 3-1 record. This game will feature Lohse (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 3-6 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander Worley. They sport a 2-6 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
When they lead after 7 innings, both Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a 1-2 record.
The Pirates managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are coming in with a 0-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 0-4. The Brewers have a 1-7 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Milwaukee has hit three this season. Pittsburgh ranks 12th with 10 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 6.67 per game. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 7.44.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Pittsburgh sits at 25th with an OPS of .623 and Milwaukee ranks 28th with an OPS of .605.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 0-5. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 2-5 record.
