Charlie Morton (8-7, 4.07 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (11-11, 3.86 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (83-56) and the Milwaukee Brewers (62-78) at PNC Park. The Brewers won the last game 6-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 11 and can be seen on FSWI and RTPT.
Morton pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one, striking out three and walking three in a 4-1 defeat to the Cardinals. Jung Ho Kang (.288, 57 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 6 with one run. Nelson went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out three and walking two in a 6-3 defeat to the Reds in his most recent start. Ryan Braun (.289, 83 Rs, 25 HRs, 83 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two RBIs.
Pittsburgh is a -160 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +1,728 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 65-32. Within its division, Pittsburgh has an 18-18 record as favorite and a 25-34 record SU. The Pirates have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the NL in offense with 4.2 runs per game. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.1 per game. Pittsburgh’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.3 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.6 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 35-49 record and an overall money line of -1,629. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 6-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.8 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 10-6. The Pirates have a 68-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Nelson takes the mound. Morton (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 42-63 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 50% (30-30) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Milwaukee has won 52% (34-31) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers managed to give up seven walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 5-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 47-11. The Pirates have a 59-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 18th, Milwaukee sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 581 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 14th with 591.
Ranking 23rd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 357 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 384.
The Pirates are 55-26 when they hit at least one home run. The Brewers perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 48-31 record.
