Jeff Locke (2-2, 5.40 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (3-1, 3.23 ERA) take the hill in the second of a two-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (18-21) and the Minnesota Twins (22-17) at PNC Park. The Twins won the last game 8-5 and Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 20 and can be seen on FSN-N and ROOT-PIT.
Locke pitched 3.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs, striking out four and walking three in an 11-10 defeat to the Cubs. Pedro Alvarez (.227, 18 Rs, 7 HRs, 17 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. When pitching against the Pirates, Pelfrey is 3-2 with a 4.78 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts. Brian Dozier (.264, 31 Rs, 7 HRs, 20 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a -148 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Pirates have an overall money line of -462 and a record as the favorite of 14-11. In interleague play, they have had a discouraging season, earning 1-2 and 1-2 records as the favorite and SU respectively. The Pirates have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the AL, averaging 1.7 runs per game. They average 3.8 runs per game on the season. Pittsburgh strikes out the least of any team in the NL at home, with only 6.1 per game. Pittsburgh’s pitchers put it all together when American League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 2.3 against AL teams, compared to its 3.5 season average. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.3.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 15-15 record and an overall money line of +807. Minnesota is 15-15 as the underdog and 21-17 SU against National League opponents. When it comes to issuing walks, the Twins have the second-fewest in the AL with an average of just 2.5 walks allowed per game.
The Twins have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Pirates have a 17-16 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Pelfrey takes the mound. Locke (LHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a very good 11-5 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
The Twins are 2-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 0-5 in such matchups.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Pirates have a 7-15 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 12-5. The Twins have a 17-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 151 this season. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 179.
Pittsburgh and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Pittsburgh sits at 24th with 95 this season and Minnesota ranks 21st with 99.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 12-10. When the Twins hit at least one homer, they have a 17-4 record.
