This game could be low scoring as A.J. Burnett (3-1, 1.38 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (19-22) meet Matt Harvey (5-1, 1.98 ERA) and the New York Mets (24-19) in the second of a three-game series at PNC Park. The Pirates won the last game 4-1 and Pittsburgh leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 23 and will air on SNY and ROOT-PIT.
Burnett is 5-9 with a 4.18 ERA against the Mets in his career, and faces a struggling New York offense that’s hitting just .236 on the year. Jung-Ho Kang (.310, 8 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. In his career against the Pirates, Harvey is 0-0 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and four strikeouts. Curtis Granderson (.245, 22 Rs, 5 HRs, 13 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a small -108 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at six runs. The Pirates are 14-13 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -760. Teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Pirates, who allow only 3.6 runs per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Mets come into this game in an interesting position. They have won more than 60 percent of games played as the underdog (5-14) but have a negative money line (+625). Over the past 10 matchups, they are 4-6 SU and have a poor 0-5 record when they were an underdog to win. They have the second-lowest ERA in the NL at 3.13. They have a WHIP of 1.13, second best in the MLB.
The only other game between the two teams went Pittsburgh’s way. The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Harvey) in this game and have a 17-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Mets will be the right-hander Burnett. Right-handed starters haven’t been any trouble for them (20-13), but it’s a different story when they play on the road (5-8).
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When the Mets play into extra innings, they have a 1-0 record. The Pirates are 0-6 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Pirates have a 6-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 13-5. The Mets have a 15-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 158 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 159.
Ranking 24th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 99 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 16th with 122.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 12-11. When the Mets hit at least one homer, they have a 15-6 record.
