The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This NL matchup gets underway at 4:05 p.m. ET and fans can watch it on either ATPT or NSPA.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Pittsburgh (+155) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-165). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at even money (+100) for over 7.5 runs and -120 for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at Pirates +1.5 runs (-140) and Phillies +-1.5 runs (+120).
The Pirates have gone 12-8 SU this year and are 10-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.7 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 2.5 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 12-7 SU and 7-11 ATS. The team’s gained 3.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 6.8 units ATS.
Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 8-8-2 thus far in 2018. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 11-6-2.
Steven Brault is getting the nod for the visiting Pirates. The left-handed Brault is 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA and 11 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Phillies will put the ball in the right hand of Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), who has 15 punchouts and nine walks. Nola made two starts against the Pirates in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record with a 0.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts.
Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 6.77 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.24, along with a WHIP of 1.23.
Pirates hitters have slashed .253/.327/.416 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 3.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Pittsburgh’s offensive production been powered by right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Marte is slashing .280/.379/.507 with 21 hits, seven RBIs, 16 runs and six stolen bases, while Cervelli (.281/.382/.509) has produced 16 hits, two homers, 12 RBIs and seven runs scored.
Maintaining a slash line of .250/.289/.317 across 128 plate appearances, Marte seemed to take a step back when hitting righties on the road last year (compared to his total season line of .275/.333/.379).
In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have yielded 3.6 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.
The Philadelphia offense is putting up 5.1 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .233/.344/.321 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Phillies’ batters have been led by outfielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is hitting .310/.474/.586 with three home runs, 15 RBIs and 13 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line is .299/.434/.433 with 20 hits, eight RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.
Hernandez enjoyed hitting against left-handed pitchers at home last year, slashing .352/.410/.577 over 78 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .296/.376/.425).
The Pirates have gained 5.0 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 4.3 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in three of those games, compared to one that’ve cashed the under.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
The Pirates have lost four of their last five games SU.
Pittsburgh has recorded 17.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 14.6 over its last five.
The Pirates have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit seven over their last 10.
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