A.J. Burnett (7-3, 2.05 ERA) starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates (47-34) as they square off against James Shields (7-3, 4.14 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (39-45) in the first of a three-game series at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and can be seen on FSN-SD and ROOT-PIT.
Burnett is 4-7 with a 4.38 ERA in his appearances against the Padres, and goes up against a below-average San Diego offense which is batting just .239 this season. Andrew McCutchen (.297, 43 Rs, 10 HRs, 51 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two RBIs. Shields is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA against the Pirates in his career. He is up against a good Pittsburgh offense that’s batting .257. Justin Upton (.262, 44 Rs, 14 HRs, 46 RBIs, 16 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -143 favorite against San Diego and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +499 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 39-20. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits at home with an impressive 8.7 per game. Pittsburgh is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 62 bases. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Pirates, who have a team ERA of only 2.92. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Pirates, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.1.
In games where it is the underdog, San Diego has a 18-26 record and an overall money line of -453. The Padres have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.4 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Pirates have a 37-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Shields takes the mound. Burnett (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 29-36 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – PIT, O/U – Over
Notes
The Padres are 6-3 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 4-7 in such matchups.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Padres are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Pirates have a 15-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Padres are 7-35. The Pirates have an 8-25 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 25th in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 63 this season. San Diego ranks 18th with 70 home runs.
Ranking 13th, San Diego is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.24 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.98.
Ranking 27th, San Diego is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.665). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 18th with an OPS of .700.
When the Padres allow at least one home run, they are 19-32, well-matched with the Pirates who are 15-24 when allowing at least one homer.
