Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Francisco Liriano (1-1, 1.95 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (13-15) meet Michael Wacha (4-0, 1.93 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (21-7) in the first of a three-game series at PNC Park. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 8 and will air on FSN-MW and ROOT-PIT.
Liriano is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA against the Cardinals in his career, but is up against a strong St. Louis offense that’s hitting .273 on the year. Starling Marte (.255, 15 Rs, 7 HRs, 20 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Pirates, Wacha is 1-0 with a 1.31 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Pittsburgh offense that’s batting just .230. Matt Holliday (.344, 14 Rs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -119 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is six runs. The Pirates are 9-8 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -527. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 8-13 and a 5-6 record when they were the favorite. The Pirates will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In the last 10 games, Pittsburgh has only averaged 2.5 runs per game compared to the 3.5 they’ve averaged on the season. Pittsburgh’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Pirates have given up an average of 3.8 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 3.3.
On the other side, the Cardinals have a nice record of 3-2 when they are the underdog and are +1,252 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 16-5 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 2-1 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.9 runs per game, above their 4.5 season average. The Cardinals average 3.5 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the NL. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have the lowest ERA in the NL at 2.59. They also average just 8.2 hits allowed per game, fifth-best in the NL. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 8.2 strikeouts per game.
The previous three games have all gone St. Louis’s way. The Pirates will take on a right-hander (Wacha) in this game and have a 12-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Cardinals will be the left-hander Liriano. They sport a 3-3 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, St. Louis is 9-3, while Pittsburgh is 3-5.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 9-0 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 2-11. The Cardinals have a 4-2 record when opponents outhit them.
St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league at 24th when it comes to home runs, hitting 19 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 21.
Ranking 12th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.70 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.41.
Ranking 28th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.634). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .742.
When the Cardinals allow at least one home run, they are 8-4. When the Pirates allow one or more homers, they have a 3-9 record.
