In the first of a three-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (95-61) and the St. Louis Cardinals (98-58) at PNC Park, J.A. Happ (10-8, 3.88 ERA) and Lance Lynn (12-10, 3.16 ERA) get the ball. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 28 and will air on RTPT, FSMW and ESP2.
In his most recent outing, Happ pitched 5.1 innings, giving up three runs, striking out eight and walking one in a 6-3 victory over the Rockies. The Cardinals were victorious over the Reds 10-2 the last time Lynn pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out four. Matt Carpenter (.267, 95 Rs, 27 HRs, 83 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Cardinals, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a -120 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Pirates have a winning record of 75-35 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +2,396. They are 6-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. Over their past 10 games, Pittsburgh’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 5.5 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.4. As for the Pittsburgh defense and pitching staff, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Pirates, who allow only 3.7 runs per game. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at PNC Park, averaging 8.5 strikeouts per home game.
Moving on to the away team, the Cardinals come into this game with a win percentage of .441 when playing as the underdog (15-19) and an overall money line of +2,487. Against teams in their division, they are 44-29 SU, but have a 7-9 record when they were an underdog to win. They have the lowest road ERA in the NL at 3.14.
This game will feature Lynn (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 40-19 home and 77-46 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. The left-handed Happ will take the mound against the Cardinals, who have a 23-18 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 52% (37-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 58% (33-24) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cardinals managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are heading in with a 20-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 59-17. The Pirates have a 68-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd in runs, St. Louis has earned 631 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 10th with 677 runs.
Ranking 18th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 436 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 490.
The Pirates are 62-28 when they hit at least one home run. The Cardinals perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 64-25 record.
