The Dallas Mavericks (11-10) welcome the Portland Trail Blazers (13-10) to American Airlines Center as they look to prolong their seven-game home winning streak. The game is scheduled to start at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 4, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 220 points with Dallas set as a 1.5-point favorite.
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction
The last time the Trail Blazers played, they were defeated by the San Antonio Spurs, 131-118, and were unable to cover as 1-point underdogs. The game’s total points (249) finished well over the O/U total of 218. San Antonio’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Portland. The Spurs had a rate of 11.5 (worse than their season average of 10.9), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 15.4 (above their season average of 12.2). Damian Lillard was the game’s leading scorer with 37 points on 12-for-28 shooting.
The Mavericks beat the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game, 114-110, despite being 2.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (224) were just over the projected point total of 223.5. Dallas won the rebounding battle. The Mavericks had 17 offensive rebounds and 64 total rebounds, while the Clippers had eight and 44, respectively. With 16 points and 23 rebounds, DeAndre Jordan put together a good outing for Dallas.
Dallas does a great job at getting to the charity stripe. They rank third in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.229), but Portland is among the best in the league at keeping opponents off the line (ranking third by allowing a FTA rate of 0.172).
Portland holds records of 13-10 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total low when the Trail Blazers are involved, as 60.9 percent of their games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 11-10 SU and 14-7 ATS. Coinciding with Portland, games featuring the Mavericks also have a tendency to finish over the total (57.1 percent).
Harrison Barnes has averaged 20 points over the last five games for Dallas.
After the Trail Blazers won two out of three meetings against the Mavericks last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Dallas won 115-109. The Mavericks had a much better turnover percentage (6.5 vs. 11.8) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (16.3 vs. 12.5).
Trail Blazers at Mavericks Free Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Portland is 4-7 ATS with 8 overs and 3 unders.
Dallas is 9-2 ATS at home with 7 overs and 4 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and Portland is 4-0.
The Trail Blazers are 13-8 when they score over 100 points, while the Mavericks are 11-9.
Dallas ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while Portland ranks 24th (5.9).
The Mavericks rank 13th in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while the Trail Blazers rank last (13.3).
Portland ranks second in rebounds per game (49.2) while Dallas ranks 16th (45.2).
The Mavericks rank 14th in steals per game (7.7) while the Trail Blazers rank 27th (6.2).
Dallas ranks 13th in fast break points per game (14.3) while Portland ranks 26th (10.1).
The Mavericks average 14.80952380952381 second chance points per game, which ranks 8 in the league. The Trail Blazers rank 18 in second chance points allowed per game (13.782608695652174).
Dallas ranks 20 in assists per game (22.666666666666668) while Portland ranks 28 (20.73913043478261).
The Mavericks rank 5 in points allowed in the paint per game (44.95238095238095) while the Trail Blazers rank 10 (46.78260869565217).
Dallas ranks 10 in three pointers attempted per game (33.23809523809524) while Portland ranks 14 in three pointers allowed per game (31).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Portland is 0-5 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over its last five games.
The Trail Blazers have been outscored by an average of 8.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Portland has defeated opponents by an average of 1.3 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (4.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.8 points per game (0.9 above their season average).
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